Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Roboteer an ubiased review
The forex roboteer expert advisor is a trading system designed by peter parsons an elegetely experienced forex trader who is also the creator of the forex ranger expert advisor. He claims that the forex roboteer expert advisor is a long term profitable trading system and he also makes a strong emphasis in the importance of optimization and how he has been able to streamline the whole process to make it very easy and seamless for his EA customers. The objective of today's post is to evaluate Mr. Parson's claims against the evidence he provides. On this post I will give my opinions and analysis on this trading system and how I consider it stands regarding long term profitability.
The claims made by this expert advisor seller are quiet as we would expect , he claims to have up to 83% winning trades, automatic money management, 77 trades per month, built in optimization, etc. I have to say that the evidence he provides does allow me to evaluate the expert advisor and the validity of his claims to some extent. The first thing I noticed was that there are both backtests and live tests on his webpage, live tests seem to be broken up in months and some months like June seem to have been left out. I am always very very skeptycal when I see broken down live statements because the act of breaking them up can be used to eliminate losing trades. Since this guy's system has a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio of almost 5:1, you would have to say that getting out some loses could perfectly make the system more profitable. I also know several forex traders and non of them ever take trades with a risk to reward ratio of more than 1:3, that is, they never take anything in which they are not going to risk 1/3 of their possible profit. Why would I ever believe that a proffesional trader would design a system with a 5:1 ratio ? I simply just don't, at least not a trader who has really been long term profitable for a few yers.
The fact that June is left out of the live tests also makes me very suspicious, why wasn't it traded ? is it never traded ? Or was it just traded and there were too many loses to show ? This is totally wrong. Also the backtesting is very limited and only partial backtests are shown. Why not show us a 10 year long backtest ? Evenmore, why not show us year long backtests with walks forward to show us how the optimization performs ? What about back vs live testing comparisons ?
Well, you guesses right, the most probable thing is that all these things are missing for a good reason, they probably show the true face of this expert advisor, which, as many other systems out there with unfavorable risk to reward ratios is just short term profitable and then gets ripped appart as the market evolves. This systems also are not very good to optimize because you cannot optimize to the future ! only to the past ! and changes in the lower time frames happen rapidly so optimization is bound not to work because you always lag the market (and it changes to fast on those timeframes).
In my opinion, this system is NOT worth buying because there is a substantial failure to provide convincing enough evidence that a) the optimization works b) the system indeed produces profits in the long run c) the system's backtests are consistent with the live testing information. That said, if all this information is provided, I will be glad to rewrite this review. In the meantime, if you would like to know more about why experts like this and others fail so frequently in the forex market and what actually works in forex automated trading lease consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
The claims made by this expert advisor seller are quiet as we would expect , he claims to have up to 83% winning trades, automatic money management, 77 trades per month, built in optimization, etc. I have to say that the evidence he provides does allow me to evaluate the expert advisor and the validity of his claims to some extent. The first thing I noticed was that there are both backtests and live tests on his webpage, live tests seem to be broken up in months and some months like June seem to have been left out. I am always very very skeptycal when I see broken down live statements because the act of breaking them up can be used to eliminate losing trades. Since this guy's system has a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio of almost 5:1, you would have to say that getting out some loses could perfectly make the system more profitable. I also know several forex traders and non of them ever take trades with a risk to reward ratio of more than 1:3, that is, they never take anything in which they are not going to risk 1/3 of their possible profit. Why would I ever believe that a proffesional trader would design a system with a 5:1 ratio ? I simply just don't, at least not a trader who has really been long term profitable for a few yers.
The fact that June is left out of the live tests also makes me very suspicious, why wasn't it traded ? is it never traded ? Or was it just traded and there were too many loses to show ? This is totally wrong. Also the backtesting is very limited and only partial backtests are shown. Why not show us a 10 year long backtest ? Evenmore, why not show us year long backtests with walks forward to show us how the optimization performs ? What about back vs live testing comparisons ?
Well, you guesses right, the most probable thing is that all these things are missing for a good reason, they probably show the true face of this expert advisor, which, as many other systems out there with unfavorable risk to reward ratios is just short term profitable and then gets ripped appart as the market evolves. This systems also are not very good to optimize because you cannot optimize to the future ! only to the past ! and changes in the lower time frames happen rapidly so optimization is bound not to work because you always lag the market (and it changes to fast on those timeframes).
In my opinion, this system is NOT worth buying because there is a substantial failure to provide convincing enough evidence that a) the optimization works b) the system indeed produces profits in the long run c) the system's backtests are consistent with the live testing information. That said, if all this information is provided, I will be glad to rewrite this review. In the meantime, if you would like to know more about why experts like this and others fail so frequently in the forex market and what actually works in forex automated trading lease consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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